EV Betting (Expected Value Betting) means a betting strategy designed to make a profit in the long run. The aim of the strategy is to wager bets on events with a positive expected value. Simply, the chosen events should have a higher probability of winning than a probability of losing.
Such gambling system requires from the bettor a deep understanding of statistics and probability theory. However, if you learn the strategy, you will be able to make a profit in the long run.
Negative -EV means a situation in sports betting when the bettor expects to lose money in the long run. This happens when the probability of success gets lower than expected. For example, if a bettor wagers a $100 stake on a team with 1.5 odds, then it is to be expected to get $150 in case the team wins, but he also risks losing $100 if the chosen side loses. In this case, the expected value of the bet is -$50. This means that the bettor expects to lose $50 with each stake wagered.
A positive +EV means a situation in sports betting when the bettor expects to make a profit in the long run. It occurs when the probability of winning a bet gets higher than expected. For example, if a bettor wagers a $100 stake on a team with 2.0 odds, it is to be expected to get $200 in the event the team wins, and lose $100 if the team loses. In such case, the expected value of the bet is $50. This also means that the bettor expects to get $50 with each stake wagered.
In other words, in order to make a profit in sports betting, a bettor must bet on events with a positive +EV. Namely, it is highly important to find events with the probability of winning being higher than expected.
Value bet means a bet with a positive (+EV) expected value for the bettor. Meaning, when wagering bets, the bettor expects to make a profit from the bet, regardless of said bet winning or losing.
There are several reasons for value bets appearance:
If one intends to find value events, then one needs to be aware of the reasons for their occurrence. The bettor must also be prepared to spend lots of time researching events and analyzing the betting markets. Below we have put together some additional tips that will help you to increase your chances of finding a value bet:
For a better understanding of the EV Betting strategy, let's take a look at a live example. For our experiment, let's take the NHL regular season matchup, the Edmonton Oilers vs the San Jose Sharks. We chose the bookmaker having set the following quotes:
Team | ODDS |
Edmonton Oilers | -476 |
San Jose Sharks | +425 |
For convenience, let's use a $1,000 betting stake. Let's also use a special algorithm to determine which side we are to bet on:
In case of negative BO line (-476):
Qt/ (Qt + 100) x 100%
476 / (476 + 100) x 100% = 82.63%
In case of positive BO line (+425):
100 / (Qt + 100) x 100%
100 / (425 + 100) x 100% = 19.04%
After calculating the probabilities (82.63 + 19.04), the sum gets more than 100% (101.67%). This 1.67% is the BO's margin (Vig) for the event.
In case of wagering a $1,000 bet on the Edmonton Oilers to win at -476, you can get $210 of net profit. In the event that the bet does not win, then we lose the amount of $1,000.
EV = (PV x SV) - (PP x SP), where PV means the win percentage, SV means the potential net profit, PP means the loss percentage, SP means the potential loss
With our example, we get the following data:
EV = (0.8263 x 210) - (0.1904 x 1000) = 173.52 - 190.04 = -$16.88.
In this example, we get a negative -EV, and it is quite high: -$16.88. So it doesn't make sense to bet on the Edmonton Oilers to win, because in the long run we will lose $16.88 on each $1,000 bet being wagered. If you intend to bet long term, don't use such kinds of events.
Using the live example above, we've found out the Edmonton Oilers' chance of winning is 82.63%. However, we can also calculate the chances of the other team's winning. Let's say we assume that the true probability is higher, let's take 92%. In this case, EV can also be calculated using the new data:
EV = (0.92 x 210) - (0.1904 x 1000) = 193.2 - 190.04 = $3.16
And here we get an event with a positive +EV. It turns out that one can bet on a match if betting long term.
This is a positive EV value, meaning one should bet on the event.
The main issue lies in determining the true chances (either based on analysis, or based on a comparison of bookmakers). We recommend relying on BetWasp's EV Betting service, with this scanner you can beat any bookie!
American odds – method of representing the probability of an event as the amount of winning in case of betting $100. American odds are always expressed as a positive or negative number. Positive odds indicate the probability of winning more than you bet if your bet wins. Negative odds indicate losing a large amount per each lost bet.
To calculate the American odds based on probability, use one of two formulas:
In case of more than 50% probability of an event:
American odds = - (V/ (100 - V)) * 100, where V means the probability.
For example, if the home team has a 60% chance of winning, then the true American odds for the team to win are to be -150.
In case of less than 50% probability of an event:
American odds = - ((100 - V) / V) * 100, where V means the probability.
When the probability of the event is estimated at 25%, then the formula gives us the ultimate odds of +300.
[!] Any other odds with the above outcomes will be either negative or positive. You are to to find a positive odd (when the bookmaker underestimates the real chances of a certain team winning).
Vig (or the bookmaker margin) means a fee charged by the bookie on every bet wagered. Vig is calculated as a percentage of the betting stake. For example, if the wining odds set for a team is -110, then Vig is 10%. In this case, the bettor is to lose $10 of any $100 bet wagered, even with winning bets.
Margin is the main way for the bookmakers to make a profit. The bookies cannot accurately predict the outcome of an event, so they charge Vig to offset their risks.
Vig may be annoying for bettors, but it's a necessary part of the sports betting industry. Without margin, the bookies would not be able to exist, and bettors would not be able to wager their bets.
Here are some tricks to reduce the impact of margin on the bets:
Let's take a look at the impact of the bookmaker's margin on bets, for this let's use a real example. Let's say we chose a basketball game, the New York Knicks vs the Cleveland Cavaliers. For the each side's win, our chosen BO has set the following odds:
Team | ODDS |
New York Knicks | -250 |
Cleveland Cavaliers | +210 |
Step 1. Let's express the -250 quote of the home team's win as a probability using the formula for negative odds:
(250 / (250+100)) x 100% = 71.42%
Step 2. Let's express the +125 quote of the away team's win as a probability using the formula for positive odds:
(100 / 210 + 100) x 100% = 32.25%
Step 3. Now we add the probabilities of both events:
71.42 + 32.25 = 103.67%
Step 4. Now we subtract 100% from the received amount to find out the bookmaker's margin:
103.67% - 100% = 3.67%.
This is exactly what the Vig (or a margin) set by the bookmaker for this event is.
It turns out that in betting with Expected Value Betting strategy, it is important not only to find the difference in quotes, but also to take into account the Vig set by the bookie. In case the total value (margin included) is lower, we have a negative +EV. It means that it is not worth betting on such events.
ODDS | Payout | |
Book1 for calculation | 1,75 | 93,5$ |
Book2 for calculation | 1,85 | 95,5$ |
Book3 for calculation | 1,83 | 96,0$ |
Book1 for display | 1,99 | 100$ |
Book1 for display (Valuebet) means the bookie selecting events with overstated quotes.
Book1/Book2/Book3 for calculation mean the bookmaker we've chosen to scan for value bets.
Payout means the amount to be gained by the bettor in case two opposite bets with a total betting stake of $100 get returned.
Here we must to take into account that the payout directly depends on the size of Vig set by the bookmaker: the smaller the margin, the greater the amount of the return.
According to our formula, the expected profit from Valuebet is $100.
The formula above says that 1.99 is overstated by 2.25%. That is, we are to win a small amount from the BO (2.25%), since their line has an error. We have verified this fact with the help of the more effective bookies.
The bookmakers are actively struggling the value bettors. They use various methods to deal with value bets. Here are some of them:
Lots of bettors manage to make profit in a long run and not be caught by the bookies. Is it difficult? Not at all, you just have to follow some simple tips:
By following the above tips, you will be able to significantly increase your chances of winning bets.
⭕ Which strategy is better, EV Betting or Surebets?
EV Betting and Surebets are two different sports betting strategies. EV Betting is a strategy designed for searching for bets with a positive expected value. In turn, Surebets is a strategy for finding bets that guarantee profit in any outcome of the event.
Value betting is more complex than surebetting. Its successful implementation requires a good understanding of statistics, and probability theory. But if you learned said betting system, you will be able to make a profit in the long run.
So which one is the best strategy? It all depends on your goals and preferences. If you want to make profit in the long run, then EV Betting is your best choice. But if you want to easily make a quick profit "right here right now", then feel free to choose Surebets.
⭕ How much can one earn with value betting?
There is no clear answer to this question, since it is different for all bettors. The amount of profit that may be made with value betting depends on lots of factors: the size of the betting stake, the size of the bets, the chosen odds, the luck of the bettor, and much more. If a bettor is well versed in the chosen sport and knows how to search for values, then such bettor will be able to make decent amounts of profits in a long run.
Nevertheless it still is highly important to remember that sports betting is a form of gambling and there is always a risk of losing. So never bet more money than you can afford to lose.
⭕ Can the bookies block my account?
Yes, the bookmakers are able to block your account for various reasons:
Using the EV Betting strategy is not expressly prohibited, however, the bookmakers consider it to be artificial manipulations and a violation of the rules. The thing is that the bookies are not interested in you winning, especially if you have an advantage. So the blocking due to the use of values is an option. That is why we recommend betting carefully and following simple rules when wagering your bets.
If your account is blocked, you can try to contact the bookmaker's support team, and find out the reason for the block, and see if it is possible to unblock it. However, if the block was caused by suspicious activity or a violation of the rules, the bookmaker will most likely refuse to unblock your account.
⭕ How much should I invest to begin value betting?
The starting amount recommended for value betting depends on your financial means and your goals. If you are just starting to engage in this kind of betting, then you must not invest heaps of money. It is much better to start with small amounts that you can afford to lose over the course of a week / month. And only with an experience and self-confidence should one switch to an "big boy" betting.