If you want to earn consistently from betting, having a good sporting instinct and an interest in matches is not enough. You need to correctly assess the true chances and compare them with those offered by the bookmaker. A special tool helps with this the value bet calculator. It’s completely free and available to all users right on our website. With its help, you can quickly determine whether a bet is worth placing and how profitable it is for you.
What Are Value Bets?
Value bets are wagers where the real chance of winning is higher than the bookmaker’s implied probability. In other words, the bookmaker has underestimated the likelihood of an event, and you’ve spotted it. For example, the bookmaker offers odds of 2.00, implying a 50% chance of occurrence. You analyze the data and conclude the probability is closer to 60%. This difference is the value of the rate of return that can generate stable income over time.
How Does the Value Bet Calculator Work?
The value bet calculator helps you determine if a bet offers value. It shows whether you have an edge over the bookmaker. To check this, you need two inputs:
- Bookmaker’s odds — the number by which your potential return is multiplied.
- Your estimated probability — how likely you think the event is to occur (based on statistics, news, and analysis).
If your estimated probability exceeds the bookmaker’s implied probability (1 / odds), the bet is considered a value bet potentially profitable in the long run.
Example
The bookmaker offers odds of 2.20 on Team A to win. After your analysis, you estimate the true probability of Team A winning as 50% (0.50). Entering these values into the calculator shows that the implied probability of 1 / 2.20 ≈ 0.45 is lower than your 0.50 estimate. Therefore, this is a value bet and advantageous for long-term betting.
How to Use the Value Bet Calculator
- Gather as much information as possible about the match statistics, team form, expert forecasts, and any other relevant data.
- Note the odds offered by the bookmaker for the event.
- Calculate your own estimate of the real probability of the outcome.
- Open the value bet calculator and enter the bookmaker’s odds and your probability estimate.
- The calculator will indicate whether the bet is a value bet i.e., profitable for you.