What are Sure Bets — Best Tips

Surebet, also known as "Arb", is a situation in the world of sports betting that results from inconsistencies in odds of different bookmakers. This unique phenomenon allows the player to get a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome of the spors event.

[!] This article uses the terms «surebet» and «arbitrage situation», which are interchangeable. Both terms are equivalent and mean the same thing.

Why Surebets Occur In Sports Betting

Surebets in sports betting are formed when the odds for opposite outcomes of the same event are not balanced. This can happen for a number of reasons, including bookmaker errors, fast changes in odds, or when players have additional information that the bookmaker does not have.

BetWasp - Surebets Software

The one of the reasons for the appearance of surebets is the struggle for customers between bookmakers. Each bookie is trying to attract as many new players as possible, because for the bookmaker it is the number of active users that is the key to making a profit.

Due to increased competition, bookmakers often offer increased odds, making the line of some events completely unbalanced. Well, not balanced odds on opposite outcomes of the same event often lead to the appearance of a surebet.

The Main Reasons For the Occurrence of Surebets

There are several reasons for the appearance of surebets:

  1. Competition for clients between bookmakers. Bookmakers are constantly competing for customers and one way to do this is by offering higher odds on bets. This is attractive to players, but also causes surebets.
  2. Late change in quotes. Bookmakers are not always able to instantly update odds for sports events. This can lead to the fact that quotes for opposite outcomes of the same event will not be balanced, which creates a surebet.
  3. Inconsistency between bookmakers. If a lot of bets are made on one event with one bookmaker, then he may deliberately underestimate the odds. At the same time, other bookmakers may not observe an abnormal number of bets on this fight, which causes an imbalance in the market and, as a result, surebets.
  4. Bookmaker mistakes. Specialists of bookmakers can also make mistakes when setting odds for sporting events. This can lead to the fact that quotes for opposite outcomes of the same event will not be balanced between bookmakers.

If you want to find a sure bet, it is important to be aware of these reasons and keep up to date with the latest things on the betting market.

Types of Surebets

There are only two types of Surebet in the world of betting: Prematch and Live.

A prematch surebet is an arb that arose before the start of the event. This kind of surebets can be found by users even in manual mode, because their odds do not change every minute. However, it is prematch surebets that are most often discovered by the bookmakers themselves.

Benefits of Prematch Surebets

We have collected the main advantages of surebets in Premach mode:

  • A huge number of matches with surebets;
  • A small chance of not having time to put down all the shoulders of the surebet;
  • Even a beginner can operate prematch surebets, because the odds change smoothly.
  • Prematch surebets choose the players who want to test themselves in the search for betting surebets and place them without much haste.

A live surebet occurs directly during the fight (in real time). These sure bets are hardly to indicate for bookmakers, therefore they are considered much safer. However, it is almost impossible to find such a surebet on your own, because quotes for events change almost every 5-10 seconds. We recommend using a BetWasp scanner for live surebets.

Benefits of Live Surebets

Here are some of the advantages of the Live mode:

  • Most live arbs have high profit up to 10% and more;
  • Due to the frequent change of odds, a lot of new sure bets are formed almost every minute;
  • Low probability of being detected in surebetting by the bookmaker;
  • Fast turnover.

If a player is looking for a way to get more thrills and high profitability from surebets, then Live mode is the best choice.

BetWasp - Surebets Software

How to Calculate Sure Bets?

It's time to understand the concept of a surebet using a real example. Let's take the NBA regular season match between the Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets. We also identified 2 bookmakers suitable for us, which put the following quotes for the team to win:

Miami Heat Bookmaker Denver Nuggets
-118 Bet365 +108
-149 William Hill +145

Step 1. Convert quotes to European values.

For further calculations, we need to convert American odds to decimal (European). To convert American odds to European, you must use the formulas:

EK = 1 + (K / 100), with a positive American odds;
EK = 1 + (100 / -K), with negative American odds.

Now let's calculate all our 4 events:

  1. Miami Heat win at Bet365: EK = 1 + (100/118) = 1.85
  2. Miami Heat win at William Hill: EK = 1 + (100/149) = 1.67
  3. Denver Nuggets win at Bet365: EK = 1 + (108/100) = 2.08
  4. Denver Nuggets win at William Hill: EK = 1 + (145/100) = 2.45
Miami Heat Bookmaker Denver Nuggets
1.85 Bet365 2.08
1.67 William Hill 2.45

Step 2. Calculate the inversion (L) for all possible outcomes of the clash.

Bookmaker #1 (We will take Bet365 as bookmaker #1): L = (1/1.85) + (1/2.08) = 1.0213.
Bookmaker #2 (For bookmaker #2 we will use William Hill bookmaker): L = (1/1.67) + (1/2.45) = 1.0069.

As can be seen from our calculations, the profit for bookmaker #1 will be 2.13%, while for bookmaker #2 is 0.69%. These amounts do not depend on the outcome of the event.

Step 3. Calculate the inversion (L) for Bookmaker #1 and Bookmaker #2.

In our example, we are interested in higher quotes, so let's take the victory of the Miami Heat for "1.85" in Bookmaker #1, and in Bookmaker #2 we should bet on the victory of the "Denver Nuggets" for "2.45". With this data, we get the following inversion:

L = (1/1.85) + (1/2.45) = 0.9487.

According to our calculations, the inversion for counter bets turned out to be less than “1.0”. This is exactly what we needed. Now you should choose the right amount that you need to bet on each of the legs of the surebet.

Step 4. Calculate the amount required for each bet.

For the convenience of our calculations, we will use a bank of 1000 dollars. Now the sum for each arm of the surebet has been calculated:

S1 = 1000 / (0.9487 x 1.85) = $569.77
S2 = 1000 / (0.9487 x 2.45) = $430.23

Putting down such amounts is very suspicious, so we round each amount a little bit:

S1 = $570;
S2 = $430.

In our case, the Miami Heat in Bookmaker #1 should be $570, but the Denver Nuggets in Bookmaker #2 should be $430. It is this alignment that guarantees us a win in any outcome of the fight.

Step 5. Calculate the potential income.

And finally, let's find out the amount that we can get as a result of this surebet. Here you should calculate all possible options for the outcome of the clash:

Miami Heat win:

S = (S1 x K1) - (S1 + S2) = (570 x 1.85) - 1000 = $54.5

Denver Nuggets win:

S = (S2 x K2) - (S1 + S2) = (430 x 2.45) - 1000 = $53.5

In this case, it turned out that in any scenario we receive an income in the amount of 53-54 dollars of net profit. The profitability of this surebet was 5.4%, which is an excellent indicator for a prematch arb. However, do not forget about the presence of bookmaker margin. Take this factor into account when calculating the profitability of a surebet.

BetWasp is a New Software For Sure Bets Search

Searching for surebets takes a lot of time, and it is not certain that a manual search will bring success. It is simply impossible to view all the markets of bookmakers on your own, which is why the player misses out on a lot of profitable offers. In live mode, manually finding an arbitrage situation is completely hard, because quotes change very quickly. However, there has been a way out of this situation for a long time - specialized software for searching for surebets.

Surebet software scan the line of various bookmakers and look for bets that can be profitable (sure bets). Using such software will significantly increase your productivity in betting, because you will always know about all the current surebets according to your settings.

So we advise you to use BetWasp surebet inding service. This software scans the line for 42 sports in more than 40 of the most popular bookmakers from around the world. With the BetWasp app you will get a lot of benefits:

  • A huge selection of available surebets with a yield of 1% to 20%;
  • The scanner covers a line of 40+ bookmakers;
  • Search for highly profitable surebets in live and prematch modes;
  • There is almost no delay when updating quotes;
  • Search for surebets in one click;

You can read the full instructions for using the BetWasp service here.

How BetWasp Sure Bet Scanner Works

BetWasp is a surebet scanner that helps bettors find arbitrage opportunities. The software scans the line and odds of various bookmakers and looks for the most profitable surebets and value bets.

Best Surebet Software

The process of searching for a BetWasp arb scanner looks quite simple:

  1. The software automatically scans and analyzes the betting line of bookmakers for a variety of sports.
  2. Further, the system based on artificial intelligence selects the best quotes, simultaneously carrying out mathematical calculations to detect surebets.
  3. The customer  is provided with a list with all surebets, the yield of which reaches 10-15%.
  4. Further, the scanner user must independently set the necessary filters (yield of surebet, bookmakers, sports, etc.) and make the correct bets.

The use of an automated search for arbitrage situations provides a significant advantage over bookmakers. With a help of it, you can minimize the risk of losing money. In addition, the software offers many more sure bets than any professional bettor will be able to find on his own.

How Bookmakers Deal With Arbers

Bookmakers do not like surebetors, as they reduce the income of the bookies. Therefore, in each bookmaker there are specialists involved in tracking and punishing such bettors (fraud team). To detect arbers, bookmakers use the following methods:

  • The attention of bookmaker specialists is primarily focused on the amount of bets. A typical bettor bets an equal amount ($10-50-200), while arbers are forced to use non-standard amounts ($17.35-57-171). Try to avoid unrounded bets when playing surebets.
  • Highly profitable surebets are very often the bait of the bookmaker's fraud service. Sometimes bookmakers specially organize surebets to keep track of who will use them. Accounts involved in this will be subject to review.
  • The attention from the bookmaker is also given to players who bet on extremely unpopular sports events for their local group. A simple example: A Colorado bettor is unlikely to bet on college volleyball in South Korea. Such activity also arouses interest from the bookmaker.
  • Account verification. Bookmakers often request confirmation of identity, with which arbers may have problems. The thing is that some surebettors use fictitious data when registering. We strongly do not recommend doing this.
  • Checking a bank card for its connection with the account owner. According to the rules of bookmakers, payment details must match the owner of the game account. Therefore, the BC security service has the right to request verification of a bank card or other payment method used by the player.
  • In addition, bookmakers may require confirmation of the player's registration address, as one of the ways to confirm the authenticity of the account.
  • Bookmakers are constantly collaborating with other bookmakers so they can exchange surebet information to identify and block players who use these strategies across bookmakers.

What restrictive measures are taken against arbers by bookmakers?

Bookmakers use various methods to restrict accounts to protect themselves from arb-related losses. These methods include:

  1. Reducing the maximum bet size: Bookmakers may reduce the maximum bet size allowed for certain users.
  2. Restriction of access to promotions and bonuses: Bookmakers may restrict players' access to promotions, bonuses and other promotions in order to reduce the possibility of their abuse when using surebets.
  3. Blocking access to certain markets: Bookmakers can block access to certain markets or types of bets that are often used in arb strategies.
  4. Increased identity verification requirements: Bookmakers may require users to complete more detailed identity verification, provide additional documents and information to reduce the possibility of creating multiple accounts with fictitious data.
  5. Cancellation of Winnings: Bookmakers can take all surebet(s) winnings from the account if players use this strategy.
  6. Account Freeze: Bookmakers may temporarily freeze all activities with the account (including withdrawal of funds) until the fate of the player is decided. In this case, the arber still has a chance to prove his innocence and stay with the account. However, there are few such cases.
  7. Deleting an account: The worst option of all is a complete blocking of the player's account without the ability to withdraw money from it. In fact, this is the end of the legal game for the bettor in this bookmaker.

It is important to note that each bookmaker may apply their own unique account restriction methods and these methods may change over time as bookmakers adapt their strategies to deal with surebets.

In addition, popular bookmakers are taking all possible measures to prevent surebets by tracking abnormal bets. After the discovery of such bets, the quotes are “cut”, due to which the arb is eliminated by itself.

TOP 5 Tips For Beginners

Not every newbie arber can immediately figure out how to correctly and safely operate with surebets. Therefore, we have collected the best tips to help you become a more experienced and successful player:

  1. Don't bet on "uneven" amounts of money. Try to avoid bets of "133.06" or "161.18" dollars, because this can attract the attention of the bookmaker. It is better to bet on even amounts of money (like "20", "75", "150" dollars), even for the sake of a slight decrease in potential profit.
  2. Do not withdraw funds from your account after each successful bet. Get in the habit of withdrawing funds after at least 10 successful bets, and it is better to withdraw once or twice a month. So you will have less attention from the bookmaker's fraud service.
  3. Don't bet on everything. Choose up to 3 favorite sports for yourself and use surebets only on them. No ordinary bettor will bet on everything.
  4. Bet on popular events. From time to time it is worth betting on popular events, as ordinary players do. If you do not have a suitable surebet, then put down just like that (you can use a small bet size).
  5. Do not use suspicious surebets. Sometimes bookmakers create high-yielding arbs on purpose to catch arbers. If you think this prematch sure bet looks too good to be true, skip it.


⭕ What is a surebet?
Surebet (arb) is a mathematically calculated situation allowing making stakes on all the opposing outcomes of the competition in different bookmakers. And the main thing here - you earn in spite of the outcome!

⭕ How much can you earn on surebets?
The amount of earnings on surebets depends on several factors: the size of the bet, the selected odds, the number of surebets, initial bank etc. In general, a player can safely expect on a profit of 2-5% from each prematch surebet and 5-10% from the live one.

⭕ Is it legal to work with surebets?
Yes, it is completely legal to work with surebets because you are using only mathematical knowledge without any kind of fraud. However, many bookmakers consider this a violation of their rules.

⭕ Can bookmaker block my account?
In some cases, the account of a bettor who is keen on surebets can be blocked by the fraud service of the bookmaker. More details on this topic can be found at the link: What to beware of arbitrage betting?

Used literature, references

Oleg Borshchev
Having a huge wealth of knowledge and 11 years of betting proficiency, Oleg kindly shares his tips and experience in our blog. In his articles, you'll learn more about different strategies and bet types, as well as find a lot of useful advices and tips.
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