Surebet, also known as "Arb", is a situation in the world of sports betting that results from inconsistencies in odds of different bookmakers. This unique phenomenon allows the player to get a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome of the spors event.
[!] This article uses the terms «surebet» and «arbitrage situation», which are interchangeable. Both terms are equivalent and mean the same thing.
Surebets in sports betting are formed when the odds for opposite outcomes of the same event are not balanced. This can happen for a number of reasons, including bookmaker errors, fast changes in odds, or when players have additional information that the bookmaker does not have.
The one of the reasons for the appearance of surebets is the struggle for customers between bookmakers. Each bookie is trying to attract as many new players as possible, because for the bookmaker it is the number of active users that is the key to making a profit.
Due to increased competition, bookmakers often offer increased odds, making the line of some events completely unbalanced. Well, not balanced odds on opposite outcomes of the same event often lead to the appearance of a surebet.
There are several reasons for the appearance of surebets:
If you want to find a sure bet, it is important to be aware of these reasons and keep up to date with the latest things on the betting market.
There are only two types of Surebet in the world of betting: Prematch and Live.
A prematch surebet is an arb that arose before the start of the event. This kind of surebets can be found by users even in manual mode, because their odds do not change every minute. However, it is prematch surebets that are most often discovered by the bookmakers themselves.
We have collected the main advantages of surebets in Premach mode:
A live surebet occurs directly during the fight (in real time). These sure bets are hardly to indicate for bookmakers, therefore they are considered much safer. However, it is almost impossible to find such a surebet on your own, because quotes for events change almost every 5-10 seconds. We recommend using a BetWasp scanner for live surebets.
Here are some of the advantages of the Live mode:
If a player is looking for a way to get more thrills and high profitability from surebets, then Live mode is the best choice.
It's time to understand the concept of a surebet using a real example. Let's take the NBA regular season match between the Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets. We also identified 2 bookmakers suitable for us, which put the following quotes for the team to win:
|Miami Heat||Bookmaker||Denver Nuggets|
For further calculations, we need to convert American odds to decimal (European). To convert American odds to European, you must use the formulas:
EK = 1 + (K / 100), with a positive American odds;
EK = 1 + (100 / -K), with negative American odds.
Now let's calculate all our 4 events:
|Miami Heat||Bookmaker||Denver Nuggets|
Bookmaker #1 (We will take Bet365 as bookmaker #1): L = (1/1.85) + (1/2.08) = 1.0213.
Bookmaker #2 (For bookmaker #2 we will use William Hill bookmaker): L = (1/1.67) + (1/2.45) = 1.0069.
As can be seen from our calculations, the profit for bookmaker #1 will be 2.13%, while for bookmaker #2 is 0.69%. These amounts do not depend on the outcome of the event.
In our example, we are interested in higher quotes, so let's take the victory of the Miami Heat for "1.85" in Bookmaker #1, and in Bookmaker #2 we should bet on the victory of the "Denver Nuggets" for "2.45". With this data, we get the following inversion:
L = (1/1.85) + (1/2.45) = 0.9487.
According to our calculations, the inversion for counter bets turned out to be less than “1.0”. This is exactly what we needed. Now you should choose the right amount that you need to bet on each of the legs of the surebet.
For the convenience of our calculations, we will use a bank of 1000 dollars. Now the sum for each arm of the surebet has been calculated:
S1 = 1000 / (0.9487 x 1.85) = $569.77
S2 = 1000 / (0.9487 x 2.45) = $430.23
Putting down such amounts is very suspicious, so we round each amount a little bit:
S1 = $570;
S2 = $430.
In our case, the Miami Heat in Bookmaker #1 should be $570, but the Denver Nuggets in Bookmaker #2 should be $430. It is this alignment that guarantees us a win in any outcome of the fight.
And finally, let's find out the amount that we can get as a result of this surebet. Here you should calculate all possible options for the outcome of the clash:
Miami Heat win:
S = (S1 x K1) - (S1 + S2) = (570 x 1.85) - 1000 = $54.5
Denver Nuggets win:
S = (S2 x K2) - (S1 + S2) = (430 x 2.45) - 1000 = $53.5
In this case, it turned out that in any scenario we receive an income in the amount of 53-54 dollars of net profit. The profitability of this surebet was 5.4%, which is an excellent indicator for a prematch arb. However, do not forget about the presence of bookmaker margin. Take this factor into account when calculating the profitability of a surebet.
Searching for surebets takes a lot of time, and it is not certain that a manual search will bring success. It is simply impossible to view all the markets of bookmakers on your own, which is why the player misses out on a lot of profitable offers. In live mode, manually finding an arbitrage situation is completely hard, because quotes change very quickly. However, there has been a way out of this situation for a long time - specialized software for searching for surebets.
Surebet software scan the line of various bookmakers and look for bets that can be profitable (sure bets). Using such software will significantly increase your productivity in betting, because you will always know about all the current surebets according to your settings.
So we advise you to use BetWasp surebet inding service. This software scans the line for 42 sports in more than 40 of the most popular bookmakers from around the world. With the BetWasp app you will get a lot of benefits:
You can read the full instructions for using the BetWasp service here.
BetWasp is a surebet scanner that helps bettors find arbitrage opportunities. The software scans the line and odds of various bookmakers and looks for the most profitable surebets and value bets.
The process of searching for a BetWasp arb scanner looks quite simple:
The use of an automated search for arbitrage situations provides a significant advantage over bookmakers. With a help of it, you can minimize the risk of losing money. In addition, the software offers many more sure bets than any professional bettor will be able to find on his own.
Bookmakers do not like surebetors, as they reduce the income of the bookies. Therefore, in each bookmaker there are specialists involved in tracking and punishing such bettors (fraud team). To detect arbers, bookmakers use the following methods:
Bookmakers use various methods to restrict accounts to protect themselves from arb-related losses. These methods include:
It is important to note that each bookmaker may apply their own unique account restriction methods and these methods may change over time as bookmakers adapt their strategies to deal with surebets.
In addition, popular bookmakers are taking all possible measures to prevent surebets by tracking abnormal bets. After the discovery of such bets, the quotes are “cut”, due to which the arb is eliminated by itself.
Not every newbie arber can immediately figure out how to correctly and safely operate with surebets. Therefore, we have collected the best tips to help you become a more experienced and successful player:
⭕ What is a surebet?
Surebet (arb) is a mathematically calculated situation allowing making stakes on all the opposing outcomes of the competition in different bookmakers. And the main thing here - you earn in spite of the outcome!
⭕ How much can you earn on surebets?
The amount of earnings on surebets depends on several factors: the size of the bet, the selected odds, the number of surebets, initial bank etc. In general, a player can safely expect on a profit of 2-5% from each prematch surebet and 5-10% from the live one.
⭕ Is it legal to work with surebets?
Yes, it is completely legal to work with surebets because you are using only mathematical knowledge without any kind of fraud. However, many bookmakers consider this a violation of their rules.
⭕ Can bookmaker block my account?
In some cases, the account of a bettor who is keen on surebets can be blocked by the fraud service of the bookmaker. More details on this topic can be found at the link: What to beware of arbitrage betting?